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In the course of the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán was notable as the exclusive European Union leader to back the Republican candidate. This backing was hardly surprising, considering the Hungarian leader's championing of controversial notions including population replacement concept and the crackdowns on media freedom. Observers have noted that Hungary's premier more or less laid the groundwork for Trump's base, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as Trump's forerunner.

Political Favors Ahead of Hungarian Elections

Last week, amid crucial Hungarian elections only six months away, the US president offered electoral assistance. While Orbán seeks a fifth straight win presiding over a nation he labels an non-liberal system, his political group is behind in the polls. A visit to Washington yielded more than Trump campaign souvenirs; it obtained far more significant pre-election gifts.

Energy Exemptions and Financial Shields

Even though previously instructing European states on the imperative to eliminate all resource supplies from Russia, and warning of penalties against nations persisting to import Russian energy, the US president consented to allow a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the biggest user in the EU of Russian crude. According to Mr Orbán, the American leadership also pledged to provide a economic protection to Hungary's capital should it encounters any future difficulties, given that EU institutions is still blocking billions in EU funding to the nation due to violations of legal standards.

The details of this agreement remain somewhat murky. However Donald Trump has shown his readiness to assist like-minded partners when the US provided a $20 billion in emergency funds to Javier Milei, the South American leader. Even though the Hungarian PM failed to obtain a campaign-energising Trump visit to the Hungarian capital, the discussions still proved a profitable day’s work.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention probably highlighted the international consequences of the coming election, prior to which the opposition candidate, the rival candidate, holds a solid advantage in surveys. Heads of state know not to anticipate principled consistency from the Trump White House, and accept the US president’s attempts to undermine the EU. However the special treatment for Orbán – obtained in exchange for an pledge to purchase American energy resources – blatantly weakens the bloc's aims to end Russian oil and gas by the target date.

• Starting in 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian crude, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have contributed well over £10bn to the Moscow's war operations.
• Simultaneously, the Hungarian government has often employed the veto power to stymie progress in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As the EU attempts to forge a unified and effective strategy for backing Ukraine, and bolstering its position in any future peace negotiations, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the negotiating table remains a significant obstacle.

Rival's Approach

Péter Magyar has steered clear of vowing a major policy shift on Ukraine, and centered his campaign on home affairs, while emphasizing the importance for Hungary to begin operating as a constructive EU member. Following so many years of trolling, the European Union can only hold out hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to basic EU values, including the upholding of minority rights and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has remained a source of shame for the EU. His persistent opposition on Ukrainian matters threatens to weaken its future security.